July 21, 2004
One Step Closer to a Two-party System?
Considering all the recent talk in the media about Japanese politics moving towards a two-party system, one might expect recent poll data to reflect this. Below, are some of the numbers collected in two separate polls conducted by the Asahi Shimbun on July 12th and 13th, and a week later on the 18th and 19th. Read into polls what one will, but these numbers are a chance to ask whether Japan truly is moving towards the long-awaited two-party political system, or whether the July 11th election outcome indicates an entirely different trend.
First, some good news for those who are hopeful for just such a realignment of the political system – you aren't alone. According to Asahi’s second poll, a clear majority of respondents indicated that they felt favorable about the country moving towards a two party system. 65 percent said they thought it would be a good thing, while only 18 percent indicated otherwise.
Support figures for the LDP and DPJ - the two parties that would comprise the yet unborn system – seem to support the two-party hypothesis as well. Support for the Democrats has risen above that of the LDP, and has grown by one percentage point since exit polls conducted on the 12th and 13th. In fact, there were as many people who said they supported no party at all as those who said they supported the LDP.
Meanwhile, approval ratings for Koizumi’s cabinet have also reached a new historic low, falling to 36 percent, down three percent from 39 just a week ago. When asked if they felt it okay to entrust the LDP with the mantle of power, although 39 percent said yes, 43 percent answered that it was not okay.
As a corollary of the rising support (as expressed in the polls at least) for the Democrats, a larger number of respondents polled in the twenty-four hour period following the election said they would rather have a government centered around the DPJ (44 percent) than the LDP (31 percent).
Looking at these numbers alone would seem to spell certain disaster for the LDP. (I might also note that reading only the English language version of the Asahi Shimbun would probably lead to the same conclusion, as it clearly favors the types of numbers discussed above to those I will discuss below - see attached stories below for the differences.) However, in the context of the entire results of the poll, neither the LDP’s end, nor the development of a two-party system looks to be a forgone conclusion, at least anytime in the near future.
First, consider the other side of some of the figures cited above. It may be the case that more people gave their support to the DPJ, but that does not mean that they are ready for a transition to a Democratic government. Quite the contrary, 36 percent seemed more content to let the LDP stay in power, while only 31 percent felt that it would be okay to let the DPJ take up the reigns.
But what of Koizumi’s approval ratings? Here things may be a little tougher to read. Although the naysayers have taken the lead on this issue as well, aside from the 27 percent who were unhappy about policy matters (based on what I’ve been hearing the past few days this is probably due to cutbacks on public works spending and various other restructuring measures), few others seemed to have a clear or strong reason for not giving their support. On the other hand, not many of his supporters were able to do so either, and 8 percent admitted as much.
Prior to the elections, Prime Minister Koizumi had said that he would stay in office no matter how grim the results and most observers would have probably agreed that excepting a total disaster (i.e. massive seat losses) for the LDP, it would be difficult to force him to resign. A majority (56 percent) of those polled by the Asahi on the 12th and 13th did not seem to have a problem with the continuation of his tenure.
But perhaps the most telling numbers to emerge from the Asahi data are the responses to the question, “Why do you think the DPJ vastly increased the number of candidates elected?” While a combined total of 21 percent said they felt it was because they could trust the party’s policy or its President, Okada Katsuya, nearly three quarters said it was because people have a problem with the LDP.
Nevertheless, it’s difficult to make the case for a two party system based solely on the assumption that people are fed-up with the LDP. Looking at the outcome of the elections themselves helps to reveal why this is so.
In the larger scheme of things, one may as well consider the loss for the Greens as a gain for the Independents, and the loss for the LDP as a gain for its coalition partner Komeito. That only leaves the Socialists and the Democrats. Calculating on a zero-sum basis, it is clear that the expansion of the Democrats in the Upper House came at the direct expense of the Socialists, not of the LDP.
When asked why they supported or didn’t support the current government, respondents seemed to find it easier to cite their dislikes than to give reasons for their support. This trend is most clear on the issue of policy, where 27 percent (by far the highest percentage for any reason) of respondents indicated their dissatisfaction, while only 7 percent cited the same as reason for their support. And while only 3 percent said they didn’t support the government because of Koizumi, some 53 percent said they could no longer trust what Koizumi says. This seems to echo the point made above that while voters may be dissatisfied with the way things are now, they aren’t ready for change just yet.
First, some good news for those who are hopeful for just such a realignment of the political system – you aren't alone. According to Asahi’s second poll, a clear majority of respondents indicated that they felt favorable about the country moving towards a two party system. 65 percent said they thought it would be a good thing, while only 18 percent indicated otherwise.
Support figures for the LDP and DPJ - the two parties that would comprise the yet unborn system – seem to support the two-party hypothesis as well. Support for the Democrats has risen above that of the LDP, and has grown by one percentage point since exit polls conducted on the 12th and 13th. In fact, there were as many people who said they supported no party at all as those who said they supported the LDP.
Meanwhile, approval ratings for Koizumi’s cabinet have also reached a new historic low, falling to 36 percent, down three percent from 39 just a week ago. When asked if they felt it okay to entrust the LDP with the mantle of power, although 39 percent said yes, 43 percent answered that it was not okay.
As a corollary of the rising support (as expressed in the polls at least) for the Democrats, a larger number of respondents polled in the twenty-four hour period following the election said they would rather have a government centered around the DPJ (44 percent) than the LDP (31 percent).
Looking at these numbers alone would seem to spell certain disaster for the LDP. (I might also note that reading only the English language version of the Asahi Shimbun would probably lead to the same conclusion, as it clearly favors the types of numbers discussed above to those I will discuss below - see attached stories below for the differences.) However, in the context of the entire results of the poll, neither the LDP’s end, nor the development of a two-party system looks to be a forgone conclusion, at least anytime in the near future.
First, consider the other side of some of the figures cited above. It may be the case that more people gave their support to the DPJ, but that does not mean that they are ready for a transition to a Democratic government. Quite the contrary, 36 percent seemed more content to let the LDP stay in power, while only 31 percent felt that it would be okay to let the DPJ take up the reigns.
But what of Koizumi’s approval ratings? Here things may be a little tougher to read. Although the naysayers have taken the lead on this issue as well, aside from the 27 percent who were unhappy about policy matters (based on what I’ve been hearing the past few days this is probably due to cutbacks on public works spending and various other restructuring measures), few others seemed to have a clear or strong reason for not giving their support. On the other hand, not many of his supporters were able to do so either, and 8 percent admitted as much.
Prior to the elections, Prime Minister Koizumi had said that he would stay in office no matter how grim the results and most observers would have probably agreed that excepting a total disaster (i.e. massive seat losses) for the LDP, it would be difficult to force him to resign. A majority (56 percent) of those polled by the Asahi on the 12th and 13th did not seem to have a problem with the continuation of his tenure.
But perhaps the most telling numbers to emerge from the Asahi data are the responses to the question, “Why do you think the DPJ vastly increased the number of candidates elected?” While a combined total of 21 percent said they felt it was because they could trust the party’s policy or its President, Okada Katsuya, nearly three quarters said it was because people have a problem with the LDP.
Nevertheless, it’s difficult to make the case for a two party system based solely on the assumption that people are fed-up with the LDP. Looking at the outcome of the elections themselves helps to reveal why this is so.
In the larger scheme of things, one may as well consider the loss for the Greens as a gain for the Independents, and the loss for the LDP as a gain for its coalition partner Komeito. That only leaves the Socialists and the Democrats. Calculating on a zero-sum basis, it is clear that the expansion of the Democrats in the Upper House came at the direct expense of the Socialists, not of the LDP.
When asked why they supported or didn’t support the current government, respondents seemed to find it easier to cite their dislikes than to give reasons for their support. This trend is most clear on the issue of policy, where 27 percent (by far the highest percentage for any reason) of respondents indicated their dissatisfaction, while only 7 percent cited the same as reason for their support. And while only 3 percent said they didn’t support the government because of Koizumi, some 53 percent said they could no longer trust what Koizumi says. This seems to echo the point made above that while voters may be dissatisfied with the way things are now, they aren’t ready for change just yet.
# posted by Saru : 1:27 PM
