猿の尻笑い

First, there was beheading of 24 year old Koda Shosei, whose quest for self-discovery took him first to Jordan and then to Iraq, where he was kidnapped and later killed by a group of militants linked to Jordanian militant nutbag Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Koda’s flag-wrapped and headless body was found outside of Baghdad on October 30^th.

A week prior, a rocket round was said to have landed inside the SDF compound, piercing a large container before striking the ground and then apparently bouncing over the outer wall of the compound. Sounds a bit dodgy, that’s the official story. Although this was not the first time insurgents have tired to attack the Japanese presence there, and not even the first time a round had landed inside the compound, it was the first time damage had been caused to the base, and seems to have given the troops quite a scare.

Then yesterday, a website connected with the Iraqi militants suspected of beheading Koda posted a warning to the Japanese government that attacks within Japan are inevitable and that, “Even the wide oceans cannot protect you all. Your people will for sure be shaken.” As with the mortar attacks, this isn’t the first time militants have issued such an electronic threat to the Japanese government, so it’s difficult to access its seriousness at this point.

On November 2, the Prime Minister told a plenary session of the House of Representatives:

I recognize that the security situation in Samawah is unpredictable… [a]lthough it is relatively stable compared with Baghdad and other areas, we cannot rule out the possibility that incidents similar to the recent landing of a dud shell inside their camp may occur again…But when we look at information in the past and this incident comprehensively, we don't consider the areas around Samawah, where the Self-Defense Forces are operating, to have become unable to meet the requirement of a noncombat zone immediately.

On the other hand, public sentiment does not seem to be on Koizumi’s side. Looking at the polls, the progressive Asahi has 63% of respondents opposed to the extension past December 14^th. Not surprisingly, the more conservative Mainichi reported this week that only 50% opposed the extension, but the paper went on to admit that recent fall in support is most likely due to the gruesome death of Koda early this month.

Furthermore, cabinet approval ratings remain weak, currently at 38% according to the Asahi. Though not the lowest since taking office (support fell to 36% in April 2004), the disapproval rate has risen to 43%, once again topping the former.

Politically, opposition party (DPJ) leader Okada Katsuya announced on a Sunday morning television program that he planned on submitting a bill to the diet calling for the withdrawal of forces and a repeal of the “special forces” law which allowed the dispatch in the first place.

Given the apparent rise in popular sentiment against Japan’s role (vague though it may be) in Iraq, one might think that Koizumi would be a fool to extend the dispatch for another six months. But come December 14^th, anyone thinking so may very well find they were wrong.

For starters, the Koizumi administration and many Japanese government officials seem to feel that U.S.-Japan relations have never been better. Tom Cruise tatemae aside, Koizumi also appears to have been emboldened by Bush’s re-election, making a series of statements describing his admiration for the president and his determination to have the Japanese Self-Defense Forces play a more active role in regional and global security.

Koizuimi has also publicly supported U.S. attacks on the insurgent-held city of Falluja, describing U.S. action as “successful,” going on to note, “Improving the security is key to assisting Iraq's reconstruction…[w]e must ensure safety as terrorists are intensifying their moves to put the country into confusion.”

Such remarks coincide with a flurry of naval SDF activity in the waters around Japan. Japan hosted and coordinated “Team Samurai,” the most recent Proliferation Security Exercises (PSI) - jointly conducted by Japan, the United States, France, and Australia – sending an unequivocal signal to Pyongyang not to attempt export of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons.

Presently, two Japanese destroyers and a team of PC-3 planes as well as helicopters continue to pursue a mystery submarine that invaded Japanese territorial waters sometime yesterday and refused to surface and identify itself.

On the positive side of the political equation, the leader of LDP coalition partner Komeito leader Kanzaki Takenori told a group of reporters yesterday, “[a]s far as I see the current security situation, it warrants a continued dispatch.”

All in all, with the next election over a year away and the Komeito on his side for now, the risk of extending the SDF dispatch is less than one might expect even if cabinet approval ratings continue to plummet. Koizumi has never been an LDP party hack and knows it would require either a Komeito defection and passage of a non-confidence motion in the Diet, or severe pressure from within the LDP before he would consider stepping down. With regard to the troops, it’s difficult to imagine anything short of a major disaster resulting in Koizumi changing, or being forced to change his mind on December 14th.

# posted by Saru : 1:29 PM